The UK has traditionally focused on keeping homes warm, but successive record temperatures are changing the conversation. Rising interest in air conditioning, the arrival of government support for air-to-air heat pumps and growing concern about overheating could create a new market for heating installers – although entering it will require more than transferring existing skills.
For generations, the central challenge for the UK heating industry has been clear from its name: how to keep homes warm through a cold and damp winter.
But conditions are changing.
The Met Office’s latest State of the UK Climate analysis provides compelling evidence of the direction of travel. It found that 2025 was the warmest year recorded in UK history, stretching back to 1884, with each of the last four years among the five warmest on record.
The change is not limited to a gradual rise in average temperature. In Greater London, the number of days above 30°C and nights above 18°C has more than quadrupled when the most recent decade is compared with 1961–1990.
With further temperature records likely to be broken, overheating is becoming less an exceptional event associated with an occasional heatwave and more an ongoing concern for householders.
Consumer search behaviour appears to reflect this shift.
Analysis by business finance provider Capital on Tap estimated that UK searches for ’air conditioning’ reached 450,000 in June 2026 – up 309% year on year and almost three times the previous peak recorded during July 2022, when the UK experienced its first temperature above 40°C.
While a surge during exceptionally hot weather does not necessarily translate into completed installations or measure the size of the market, it does suggest growing consumer interest in permanent solutions to overheating.
For heating installers, this raises an obvious question: could cooling become a market worth moving into?
Malcolm Farrow, OFTEC’s Marketing and External Affairs Director, said: “With the hot weather this summer, there’s been a lot of discussion about the opportunities that cooling could present for our industry. OFTEC doesn’t offer training or registration for this kind of work, and we haven’t seen a significant number of enquiries so far, but that’s probably due to how rapidly the conversation has developed. If consumer demand continues to grow – which seems likely – there could be opportunities for heating technicians to diversify their skills and services into this area, so it’s something we’ll keep an eye on.
“For existing heat pump installers it’s an easy win, and any competent heating technician could potentially re-skill. With so many homes unsuited to the high summer temperatures we’re seeing, demand is sure to increase. The only thing holding it back is the relatively limited government support, but the cost of a basic system isn’t that high and, given the obvious benefit, I can see many households wanting to install it.”
The potential opportunity is broader than the installation of cooling-only appliances.
Many fixed domestic air-conditioning systems are reversible air-to-air heat pumps. They distribute heated or cooled air through indoor units, providing space heating during colder months and cooling when temperatures rise.
This places the technology at the meeting point of two policy challenges: decarbonising heat and adapting homes to a warmer climate.
This is reflected in policy. Eligible domestic air-to-air heat pump installations in England and Wales can now receive a £2,500 Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant. To qualify, the system must replace existing fossil fuel or electric heating and meet the property’s full space-heating needs. Cooling-only additions and hybrid systems retaining a fossil-fuel boiler are not eligible, and installations must be undertaken by an MCS-certified installer.
The grant therefore supports air-to-air heat pumps as a primary heating technology that can also provide cooling, rather than air conditioning as a summer-only extra. Of course, that doesn’t prevent a householder from installing a reversible air-to-air heat pump system, alongside their existing wet heating system, but they wouldn’t be able to benefit from BUS funding.
The purchasing decision is no longer simply whether a household wants air conditioning. It is whether a reversible system can provide year-round comfort and how hot water will be produced.
A recently published Department for Energy Security and Net Zero study modelled reversible air-to-air heat pumps across a range of UK dwelling types. It found that the systems could typically meet households’ space-heating and cooling needs but also highlighted the importance of considering the whole system, including hot-water provision.
While the heat pumps themselves performed efficiently, supplementary heating and hot-water arrangements sometimes increased running costs. The emerging message is not that air-to-air heat pumps will suit every property, but that suitability depends on the dwelling and requires proper assessment and system design.
The continuing Homes for Net Zero programme is now installing and monitoring reversible air-to-air heat pumps in occupied homes to explore performance, installation challenges and the experience of householders.
Experienced heating technicians already understand heat loss, controls, customer comfort and the importance of matching equipment to a property. Those are valuable foundations, but they do not make someone immediately competent to install air-conditioning or air-to-air heat pump equipment.
Most systems use refrigerants regulated under the F-gas rules. Anyone installing, servicing, maintaining, leak-checking or decommissioning relevant equipment must hold the appropriate personal qualification. Businesses – including sole traders – undertaking this work for customers also require company certification from an approved body.
An installer seeking to undertake grant-funded work will additionally need to meet the relevant MCS requirements. Installation also brings different requirements around refrigerant pipework, condensate, electrics, airflow and the positioning of indoor and outdoor units.
The strongest opportunity may therefore be for installers prepared to undertake an extension of competence, rather than viewing cooling as a simple add-on to their present work.
A growing market for active cooling could gradually expand the scope of domestic heating work, with customers seeking advice not only on winter performance but also on keeping their homes comfortable during prolonged summer heat.
Search interest may fall with the temperature, but the longer-term trend is unlikely to disappear. The UK is becoming much warmer, overheating is more visible and reversible technologies now have policy support.
Cooling is unlikely to replace heating as the industry’s primary concern. It may, however, become an increasing part of it – and a credible new area of work for installers with the skills, certification and system knowledge to deliver it responsibly.
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